Here we go again (Avian Influenza)

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Here we go again (Avian Influenza)
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cab

Joined: 01 Nov 2004
Posts: 32429

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 07 9:30 am Post subject:
I can't find any mention of avian influenza outbreaks over there in the States. The risk to you as a smallholder with a few chooks is pretty low, but its good that you're concerned both for your own safety and the welfare of your birds. In your position, I'd go for it. Of course there are no guarantees in this world, but still, thats what I'd do. (and welcome to the site!)

dougal

Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 07 12:26 pm Post subject:

tigerseye402 (as someone who lives in the U.S.) wrote:

I think I'd probably be more likely to be struck by lightning going outside to take care of the chickens than to catch bird flu from them.
Still, just wondering.

OK, lets look at some figures.
USA 756 lightning deaths 1990/2003.
Call that 60/year for 300 million population.
Or 1 person/year out of 5 million.

Official figures for human deaths from bird flu are less than 300 in 3 years worldwide.
World population is about 6,600 million.
So thats about 1 person/year out of 66 million worldwide.
Not much chance right now.

You are more than 13x more likely to be struck by lightning...

However there is quite a bit of regional variation.
In Wyoming, the risk of being killed by lightning rises to 1 person/year out of only half a million...
And in the entire USA no one has detected, let alone died from, H5N1 bird flu.
So in Wyoming there's a significant risk from lightning, and so far, zero risk from bird flu.

This is a disease that today poses a threat to birds, not people.
And not yet even to birds in the USA.

Public health authorities are however rightly concerned that, sometime in the future, somewhere in the world, the H5N1 bird virus might develop the trick of infecting people as easily as it today infects and spreads among birds. The authorities are concerned that the new version might then sweep the world - but IF it developed the new trick, THEN the risk would be of catching the new H5N1 from people, not from birds.

Lightning statistics here: https://www.lightningsafety.com/nlsi_lls/fatalities_us.html

tigerseye

Joined: 22 Sep 2006
Posts: 2
Location: New York

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 07 2:27 pm Post subject:

cab wrote:

I can't find any mention of avian influenza outbreaks over there in the States.

The risk to you as a smallholder with a few chooks is pretty low, but its good that you're concerned both for your own safety and the welfare of your birds. In your position, I'd go for it. Of course there are no guarantees in this world, but still, thats what I'd do.

(and welcome to the site!)

Thanks.

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 46211
Location: yes

Posted: Tue Feb 20, 07 5:48 pm Post subject:
bury the toaster in quicklime far more likely to kill you

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