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Nanny

Joined: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 4520
Location: carms in wales

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 10:38 am Post subject: david bellamy

you don't want to think about it but i think the obvious would happen

they have what we want/need

so some of "us" would go to war to get what we want/need

we will pour lots of money into the unstable countries as will other major powers and the unstable countries will go to war with each other over things and the major oil using countries will back whichever one has the potential to supply them with the most oil thus being able to fight over it without causing a major world war situation

i think that all makes sense......to me anyway.....
when the oil finally does run out............hopefully there will be a viable alternative by then

Blue Peter

Joined: 21 Mar 2005
Posts: 2400
Location: Milton Keynes

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 10:45 am Post subject: Re: david bellamy

Nanny wrote:

i hope we can afford to put oil in the tank this year

when i asked our supplier about purchasing some he suggested that we hang on for as long as we can................

It is very difficult to predict the oil price. However, it's high now, and I would think that it could go higher when winter comes and people such as you want to heat their homes. Sorry, what I am trying to say is that I think that it's high now because there's great demand for it and there isn't any extra supply. I'm not sure that there is any reason for this situation to change (other than demand becoming even higher) between now and winter. So, I'm not sure that waiting is a particularly good strategy (but I am very definitely NOT an expert in oil prices!),

Peter.

Blue Peter

Joined: 21 Mar 2005
Posts: 2400
Location: Milton Keynes

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 10:53 am Post subject: Re: david bellamy

Nanny wrote:

Didn't this start in 2003 in a certain Middle eastern country?

Peter.

Nanny

Joined: 17 Feb 2005
Posts: 4520
Location: carms in wales

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 12:16 pm Post subject: david bellamy

i agree with both your previous posts

we have to bite the bullet and buy the juice sooner rather than later...when we put our central heating in 6 years ago, oil was the best option and we put 2000 litres in for probably what we paid for the 800 last december...that's why i am frugal with it......

and yes i do believe it is too late, it started in 2003 and the lines are already drawn as it were...........

it is the way of the world - haves/,have nots and want what you gots

dougal

Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 2:09 pm Post subject:

Heating oil price is linked to global crude oil prices, not precisely, and not immediately - but crude is what the price you pay is based on.

Crude oil is priced in dollars. So the �/$ exchange rate comes into it too.

Because there is much *less* tax/duty on heating oil than on road fuel, changes in the exchange rate converted crude price show through much more nearly proportionately. (Road fuel is taxed at a flat rate per litre, independant of the oil price - but the vat element does go up as the oil price rises.)

In the last couple of months the dollar has been strengthening against the pound. From �1 being $1.90 down to $1.75 is nearly an 8% devaluation - which passes through as an oil price rise for the UK.
A small *cut* in UK interest rates is widely predicted. When and how much will affect the exchange rate...

Crude oil prices have been high for the last couple of years, not so much because of the Middle East, as because of the higher than predicted demand from the expanding Chinese economy. Undoubtedly, if Iraq were in full production, the global price for crude would be lower. However, Iraq isn't producing an amount that is (on a world scale) significantly different to what it was producing under sanctions.
World *supply* has been bumbling along, and the thing that has changed is Chinese *demand*.

Recent storms in the Caribbean damaged a couple of production platforms, causing a small upward spike in prices, to the record $60 a barrel level a couple of weeks ago. Prices have fallen back perhaps 5% from that mark. (A few years ago it was around $25...) The general expectation is that prices will stay nearer $50 than $40 for the rest of the year.
But thats only a market expectation.
Its predicting the imbalance between supply and demand, and very easy to get wrong.
Any dramatic development could cause a sudden *rise*, while the factors causing a price *drop* are generally much more low key, and longer term.

Its probably best to keep a close eye on your suppliers price offering, while watching the world price so that you could decide to buy *before* any other hike fed through to your local supplier...

dougal

Joined: 15 Jan 2005
Posts: 7184
Location: South Kent

Posted: Tue Jul 19, 05 2:25 pm Post subject:

JB wrote:

Blue Peter wrote:

...Oil won't "run out", however, it's very likely that it will get more expensive (as it has been doing this summer). Basically, demand will outstrip supply...

One dangerous possibility is that oil supply will run out in the high demand countries (US / europe) leaving available supplies in those areas which are popularly and euphamistically called 'unstable' (middle east, etc.) At which point things get 'interesting' if viable alternatives are not available.

The oil market is already global. Continental Europe produces almost no oil. The US is a large producer, but a net importer.
The UK has quite recently swung from being an exporter to an importer as production falls off in the North Sea fields.

Because the market is global, and supply and demand quite closely matched, *any* disruption in supplies *anywhere* in the world has a swift impact on the price we all pay, not just for energy, but for all the products that have energy as a component cost.
A few months ago, oil prices shot up when it seemed that Putin, by re-nationalising Yukos as punishment for the misdemeanors of Khordacovsky (sp?), might interrupt Russian shipments to China. And that affected prices here.

Marginal changes are what affects the "spot" price. The price we pay has long been shaped by developments in "unstable" countries...

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