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jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28254
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Sun Jan 19, 25 4:48 pm Post subject:

Battery claims
The following link is to the complete list of claims I have been compiling.

https://martindavidwalker.blogspot.com/2024/09/battery-claims.html

The new claims in the last week are as follows.
January 16th 2025, ProLogium Unveils Fast Charging Inorganic Battery At CES 2025
Claims of cheap production, low temperature performance and 380wh/kg energy density with a target of 450wh/kg. This is more than double the energy density of typical LFP batteries. It is worth thinking not just about the range and cost implications of half the materials but also the reduced carbon footprint.

https://cleantechnica.com/2025/01/10/prologium-unveils-fast-charging-inorganic-battery-at-ces-2025/
January 15th 2025, Samsung solid-state battery with highest energy density set for mass production
A 2027 cheap mass production claim. My last Samsung report was last July and the batteries were said to be 500wh/kg with potential to go higher. Still not much solid detail though. 2027 now achieves my general rule of ignore it as hyperbole at the 3 years or more mark!

https://www.notebookcheck.net/Samsung-solid-state-battery-with-highest-energy-density-set-for-mass-production.947578.0.html
January 15th 2025, The struggle for mass market sodium batteries
Less an advance more economic lessons, though frankly I see the Chinese getting sodium through the hurdles. They take a longer term economic view.
https://www.ess-news.com/2025/01/14/sodium-ion-batteries-face-uphill-struggle-to-beat-lithium-ion-on-cost/

dpack

Joined: 02 Jul 2005
Posts: 46408
Location: yes

Posted: Sat Feb 01, 25 11:52 am Post subject:

a slight wild card but

rokon

they make petrol ones, not the point (noisy and petrol is not ideal)

2 wheel drive, high torque, their ones only need 7HP(the drive train eats quite a bit of that as it is mechanical and relatively heavy)

"fly by wire", 2 hub motors(see koenigssegg for the type of motor that has an ace power to wt ratio), good batteries are becoming increasingly available

a very off road machine, better than a quadbike or rear drive bike, (or a rokon), and plausibly carrying an energy harvest kit if extended travel is planned(see carry capacity) seems plausible

development might cost a bit, once it was worked out a good design could be relatively cheap enough for a "mule" type of transport

much like the C90 changed urban noodle delivery, and much else, a leccy version of a rokon could transform could "challenging"rural travel

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 16155

Posted: Sun Feb 02, 25 9:30 am Post subject:
Sounds as if it could be useful on rough terrain, and being a motorcycle, even if heavy, easier to get off if it starts to topple. The idea of storing water/fuel in the wheels is interesting and should add to stability. As you suggest, an electric version would be very interesting, especially if it came with solar recharging kit.

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28254
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Sun Feb 16, 25 3:52 pm Post subject:

Battery claims
The following link is to the complete list of claims I have been compiling.

https://martindavidwalker.blogspot.com/2024/09/battery-claims.html

We have had a bit of a break no doubt due to Chinese New Year.

The new claims in the last week are as follows.
February 16th 2025, BYD to start sampling solid-state batteries in 2027
Like many others they are targeting larger production in 2030 but cite costs as an issue
https://cnevpost.com/2025/02/15/byd-demonstration-use-all-solid-state-batteries-2027/

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28254
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Sun Mar 09, 25 3:03 pm Post subject:

Battery claims
The following link is to the complete list of claims I have been compiling.

https://martindavidwalker.blogspot.com/2024/09/battery-claims.html

The new claims in the last week are as follows.
March 5th 2025, batteries drop below $100 kw/h threshold according to the IEA
This has long been touted as the point where production price parity with ICE cars would be achieved, so long to be honest that inflation has made a nonsense of the claim. Nonetheless it has never been updated so remains a milestone figure.
The IEA refers global average battery pack costs which rather confirms what I have been saying without proof for months that BYD and CATL had already smashed the $100 barrier.
https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Battery-Pack-Prices-Drop-Below-Key-Threshold-but-China-Rules-the-Market.html

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45723
Location: Essex

Posted: Mon Mar 10, 25 10:22 am Post subject:
EVs are no more expensive to buy now, and certainly cheaper to run, even according to the right wing press: https://www.gbnews.com/lifestyle/cars/electric-vehicles-cheaper-running-costs-tax

Nicky cigreen

Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9904
Location: Devon, uk

Posted: Mon Mar 10, 25 5:50 pm Post subject:
although as always I wonder if that would apply to me personally- a low mileage user. Not driving a lot is bizarrely tough on ICE cars... I haven't worked out how it is for Evs.

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45723
Location: Essex

Posted: Mon Mar 10, 25 5:58 pm Post subject:

Nicky cigreen wrote:

although as always I wonder if that would apply to me personally- a low mileage user. Not driving a lot is bizarrely tough on ICE cars... I haven't worked out how it is for Evs.

Nicky, there are many people on EV forums that have bought ridiculously cheap EVs for low mileage use and are delighted with them.

However the government is indeed listening to people like you but more likely manufacturers most of whom don't manufacture anything here and have pushed back the 2030 date.

Record wildfires in Japan, Argentina and multiple other places as we speak. Climate change is a far bigger risk and cost than anyone wants to countenance.

Extending the date that we can still buy new ICEs is frankly appalling, although I'm sure plenty will be delighted.

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45723
Location: Essex

Posted: Mon Mar 10, 25 6:05 pm Post subject:

And it's not just the consumption of fuel that's the problem, it's the whole system:

Extraction:
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0rqe85q1jno
https://www.worldbank.org/en/programs/gasflaringreduction/methane-explained

Distribution:
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2025/mar/10/uk-coastguard-scrambled-after-reports-of-collision-between-tanker-and-cargo-vessel
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cjqepd5kk8ko

Nicky cigreen

Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9904
Location: Devon, uk

Posted: Tue Mar 11, 25 12:04 pm Post subject:

tahir wrote:

...
However the government is indeed listening to people like you ....

people like me?

People for whom a brand new car is a HUGE expense and are cautious about making the right choice? People who just want to get it right? People who don't want to buy a car that is unsuitable for their needs and might not help the environment if it breaks down prematurely from lack of use? People who ask questions rather than just jumping blindly?
People who know that driving less is the most effective way of cutting emissions, consumption etc. ?

being cautious about making the change to EVs does not equate to not giving a toss about what is happening the the environment, just as driving an EV does not let a person think they are not part of the problem. A higher mileage EV user will consume more than a low ICE user.

I think EVs are the way forward. Driving less would be even better. I am not being unreasonable for asking 'is this the right thing for me?'

tahir

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 45723
Location: Essex

Posted: Tue Mar 11, 25 12:22 pm Post subject:

Nicky cigreen wrote:

tahir wrote:

...
However the government is indeed listening to people like you ....

people like me?

People for whom a brand new car is a HUGE expense and are cautious about making the right choice? People who just want to get it right?

People that are more worried about the idea of EVs than what impact any proposed ban will have on them, at every point I have presented evidence as requested to try and fight the huge disinformation campaigns funded by the fossil fuel industry.

As I said all the way through EVs will be cheaper (and now pretty much are), will be more reliable (plenty of data supporting this) and will have less environmental impact (lots of data supporting this).

All of the focus should be on how to get to the point of eliminating ICEs, and ensuring that we have sufficient infrastructure in place to ease the transition.

This is a huge setback.

Nicky cigreen

Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9904
Location: Devon, uk

Posted: Tue Mar 11, 25 12:54 pm Post subject:

tahir wrote:

People that are more worried about the idea of EVs than what impact any proposed ban will have on them

that's not people like me then.

Mistress Rose

Joined: 21 Jul 2011
Posts: 16155

Posted: Wed Mar 12, 25 8:26 am Post subject:

I agree Nicky, We may use our car more than you do, but we tend to use it only 2-3 days a week, sometimes less. I go shopping/delivering one day and perhaps do about 30 miles total. If we go out at the weekend, it may be another 15 miles total or 100 miles. This month we have done rather a lot as we had two coppice group meetings the other side of the county, but then last week we just did about 45-50 miles total. Not sure how an EV would cope with that, because I haven't looked it up, but we compromised and got a hybrid. Then again there are two types; plug in and ordinary. As we weren't ready to go for the electricity plug in point, we went for the ordinary. It suits us, but wouldn't suit everyone.

Another point to be aware of is that the 10% alcohol petrol shouldn't be left standing too long as it absorbs moisture. If you don't use your car much I would suggest not filling it completely so you use the petrol within a month or two.

Yes, Tahir I agree we have to get away from ICE cars, but can understand why some people who have very low milage and not much money are rather worried about making a very large investment. We are fortunate we were able to change our car and go towards electric, if not the whole hog, but a matter of a new car is a very big chunk of savings or having to get a finance deal for most people.

Nicky cigreen

Joined: 25 Jun 2007
Posts: 9904
Location: Devon, uk

Posted: Wed Mar 12, 25 10:02 am Post subject:
I have been reading about the rapid decline in Tesla car sales - not surprising. Seems the people most likely to opt for EVs are also most likely not to share Elon's political views. Now Trump is openly endorsing Tesla, 'buying' one himself... will the Maga crowd - previously the group the least likely to buy an EV suddenly jump on board?

jema
Downsizer Moderator

Joined: 28 Oct 2004
Posts: 28254
Location: escaped from Swindon

Posted: Wed Mar 12, 25 12:51 pm Post subject:

As an anecdote, pn long trips I try and figure if I'd waste more time filling up my tank than if I could charge an EV with 250 miles of range at home.
The EV has always won.
Monday and Tuesday though I was moving Amipest to her new home 116 miles away by motorway which has to be kind of a "sour spot" for an EV as there is no charging at the destination.
but 4 x 116 is also a challenge for my car and since I didn't want to pay through the nose at motorway services the final journey was a little slow and the car is in dire need of the usual 25 minute round trip to CostCo, whereas of course an EV would be back to full range.
So I'd say this one was pretty much a draw and of course at some point a fair EV range to consider normal will creep upwards.

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